Assessed Value Projections Study
What are the amounts of Assessed Value (AV) growth for the public entity during the foreseeable future, based upon a comprehensive analysis of each of the relevant factors, including housing price changes and turnover rates as well as new development, and how can the AV forecast be integrated into a public entity’s financial plan?
Previously, casual forecasts of future AVs started by reviewing recent trends, and then making some ad hoc adjustment; such an approach only works as long as a trend continues. However, due to the recent dramatic fluctuations in housing prices and the levels of development activity, a professional forecast that can identify turning points, rather than a simple extrapolation, is critical.
Based upon extensive experience and research in forecasting AVs, Empire Economics has formulated a comprehensive methodological framework that provides an understanding of the specific factors underlying changes in the major components making up AVs. So Empire Economics’ forecasts, by focusing on the specific factors driving each of the major components, captures the turning points for AV, resulting in a higher degree of accuracy/reliability, as compared to casual forecasts that extrapolate recent trends.
Example:
A recent AV Study revealed that the rate of change for AV during the foreseeable future changes on a year/year basis, rather than following a trendline.
Previously, casual forecasts of future AVs started by reviewing recent trends, and then making some ad hoc adjustment; such an approach only works as long as a trend continues. However, due to the recent dramatic fluctuations in housing prices and the levels of development activity, a professional forecast that can identify turning points, rather than a simple extrapolation, is critical.
Based upon extensive experience and research in forecasting AVs, Empire Economics has formulated a comprehensive methodological framework that provides an understanding of the specific factors underlying changes in the major components making up AVs. So Empire Economics’ forecasts, by focusing on the specific factors driving each of the major components, captures the turning points for AV, resulting in a higher degree of accuracy/reliability, as compared to casual forecasts that extrapolate recent trends.
Example:
A recent AV Study revealed that the rate of change for AV during the foreseeable future changes on a year/year basis, rather than following a trendline.
